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FM : TSX |
First Quantum Minerals Ltd.
HRA
were the first analysts, buy or sell side, to cover First Quantum. They were
impressed by the company’s smart plan to quickly develop an efficient copper
leaching operation and use it to leverage larger acquisitions in the famous
Zambian copper belt. FM pulled it off, even working through a terrible bear
market in the copper price. That’s all past history now, with FM’s revenues
growing rapidly, the company paying dividends and the stock trading as high as
$70, a far cry from the price tag below $2 just a few short years ago.
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One of
HRA’s oldest active recommendations, they started following it when it
became clear FM would find the funding to put the Bwana Mkubwa copper
operation in production. Doing that gave the company the credibility to go
after larger acquisitions as Zambia began privatizing its ailing copper
operations. FM was pegged consistently for accumulation in the $1-2.00
range during the metals bear market of 1999-2001.
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In the
June 2002 Dispatch HRA reiterated the accumulate call as the closing of
an $18 million financing to expand Bwana Mkubwa and an early move in copper
sent the shares to a 52 week high of $4.40
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FM’s
strengths were stressed again in the January 2003 Journal with the
comment “for those with longer time horizons FM remains one of the strongest
medium sized copper producers around.”
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FM
started to move as it put plans in place for major production increases at
new operations and the copper price began to rise. In the June 2003
Journal HRA stated that FM “is beginning to fulfill its potential and
the market is taking notice...one of our most consistent long term
recommendations, FM has generated mid triple digit gains...it should have
another triple digit gain left in it”.
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FM was
ending a great year at prices near $15 which made HRA cautious. In the
December 2003 Journal they said “It’s no secret how much we like this
stock. The perfect combination of delivery on the business plan and high
expectations for the metal has made this stock all but unstoppable”. Even
so, HRA moved it to “Hold” since “even the epitome in its class will have
its pullbacks”.
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FM moved
back to accumulate at $13.10 in the August 2004 Journal as
construction of the Kansanshi mine accelerated because “a start-up at
Kansanshi will drive FM’s annual copper production to 150,000 tonnes per
year” and “ though the company is trading at 20 times current earnings it is
well under 10 times what earnings should be once Kansanski is in full
production.”
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Having
increased another 50% in 5 months, FM was moved back to Accumulate on
Weakness (below $17) when the company announced plans to immediately expand
the size of the Kansanshi plant. “FM looks set to deliver a string of
earnings reports in the next few years that should comfortably exceed what
the market is pricing in to the stock”
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The
update in the September 2005 Journal pointed out that “the plan laid
out for Kansanshi means that production will continue to rise at an
impressive rate for at least another 5-6 quarters” and noted the company had
begun to pay dividends. The “accumulate below the current $27 range” looked
smart pretty quickly.
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After
another strong run to $45, FM pulled back to $40 after it mad a hostile
offer for Adastra Minerals. FM was updated immediately in the Special
Delivery, recommending holding to see how the offer would end up, though
HRA thought FM would not prevail (they didn’t).
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We sent
Special Delivery #271 out to alert subscribers that we believed a bottom
to a nasty market correction was imminent. Our timing was right on, and it
included a recommendation to accumulate First Quantum and other quality
names.
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FM releases
the latest in a string of strong earnings reports and HRA ups the target
price to $80 in the August 2006 Journal, even in the face of
weakening copper prices, thanks to the company’s strong growth profile.
HRA continues to
follow FM, which is expected to continue generating stellar revenue and profit
growth as it completes its long term expansion plans and will continue to alert
readers to the best accumulation points. First Quantum is now a widely followed
and traded stock that HRA considers a prime candidate for M&A activity on either
the buy or sell side. Its yet another huge win for HRA subscribers, trading
3,500% above the levels it entered the HRA list as when this page was
updated.

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