FM : TSX

First Quantum Minerals Ltd.

HRA were the first analysts, buy or sell side, to cover First Quantum.  They were impressed by the company’s smart plan to quickly develop an efficient copper leaching operation and use it to leverage larger acquisitions in the famous Zambian copper belt.  FM pulled it off, even working through a terrible bear market in the copper price.  That’s all past history now, with FM’s revenues growing rapidly, the company paying dividends and the stock trading as high as $70, a far cry from the price tag below $2 just a few short years ago.

 

 

  1. One of HRA’s oldest active recommendations, they started following it when it became clear FM would find the funding to put the Bwana Mkubwa copper operation in production.  Doing that gave the company the credibility to go after larger acquisitions as Zambia began privatizing its ailing copper operations.  FM was pegged consistently for accumulation in the $1-2.00 range during the metals bear market of 1999-2001.
  2. In the June 2002 Dispatch HRA reiterated the accumulate call as the closing of an $18 million financing to expand Bwana Mkubwa and an early move in copper sent the shares to a 52 week high of $4.40
  3. FM’s strengths were stressed again in the January 2003 Journal with the comment “for those with longer time horizons FM remains one of the strongest medium sized copper producers around.”
  4. FM started to move as it put plans in place for major production increases at new operations and the copper price began to rise.  In the June 2003 Journal HRA stated that FM “is beginning to fulfill its potential and the market is taking notice...one of our most consistent long term recommendations, FM has generated mid triple digit gains...it should have another triple digit gain left in it”.
  5. FM was ending a great year at prices near $15 which made HRA cautious.  In the December 2003 Journal they said “It’s no secret how much we like this stock.  The perfect combination of delivery on the business plan and high expectations for the metal has made this stock all but unstoppable”.  Even so, HRA moved it to “Hold” since “even the epitome in its class will have its pullbacks”.
  6. FM moved back to accumulate at $13.10 in the August 2004 Journal as construction of the Kansanshi mine accelerated because “a start-up at Kansanshi will drive FM’s annual copper production to 150,000 tonnes per year” and “ though the company is trading at 20 times current earnings it is well under 10 times what earnings should be once Kansanski is in full production.”
  7. Having increased another 50% in 5 months, FM was moved back to Accumulate on Weakness (below $17) when the company announced plans to immediately expand the size of the Kansanshi plant.   “FM looks set to deliver a string of earnings reports in the next few years that should comfortably exceed what the market is pricing in to the stock”
  8. The update in the September 2005 Journal pointed out that “the plan laid out for Kansanshi means that production will continue to rise at an impressive rate for at least another 5-6 quarters” and noted the company had begun to pay dividends.  The “accumulate below the current $27 range” looked smart pretty quickly.
  9. After another strong run to $45, FM pulled back to $40 after it mad a hostile offer for Adastra Minerals.  FM was updated immediately in the Special Delivery, recommending holding to see how the offer would end up, though HRA thought FM would not prevail (they didn’t). 
  10.  We sent Special Delivery #271 out to alert subscribers that we believed a bottom to a nasty market correction was imminent.  Our timing was right on, and it included a recommendation to accumulate First Quantum and other quality names.
  11.  FM releases the latest in a string of strong earnings reports and HRA ups the target price to $80 in the August 2006 Journal, even in the face of weakening copper prices, thanks to the company’s strong growth profile.

HRA continues to follow FM, which is expected to continue generating stellar revenue and profit growth as it completes its long term expansion plans and will continue to alert readers to the best accumulation points.  First Quantum is now a widely followed and traded stock that HRA considers a prime candidate for M&A activity on either the buy or sell side.  Its yet another huge win for HRA subscribers, trading 3,500% above the levels it entered the HRA list as when this page was updated.

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