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Case
Study: Bear Creek Mining
We began following Bear Creek
after it was listed in 2003. We warned then that, while we agreed with the
company’s philosophy of “drilling and killing” projects it would make for a
rocky market until BCM hit on something good.
Late in 2004 they began tying
up silver projects in a new area of southern Peru.
We liked what we saw and moved
BCM back up the list. That intuition proved correct when Bear Creek started
releasing drill results a few months later and the stock took off.
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1.
Coverage
started in the June 2003 Journal at $0.72 with an “accumulate“call. We
were attracted by the proven mine finders on the board who had made big money
for HRA readers in the past with Arequipa Resources (a 3000% gainer) in the
mid-1990’s, also in Peru. We realized the company was planning to test a large
number of projects and dispose of those that didn’t meet their objectives
quickly. We knew that could lead to weakness, the reason for an opening
accumulate rating, moved to “accumulate on weakness” a month later.
2.
The stock
began moving up on increasing volume as Bear Creek acquired a number of
properties in southern Peru, many with bulk tonnage silver potential. We
highlighted BCM in Special Delivery #210 in November 2004 when we
reviewed the sampling results from the Santa Ana project with management “With
Santa Ana as a lead element and a rejuvenated property portfolio, we reiterate
the Spec Buy and expectation the stock will move through the $1.00 level while
further targeting is being done”.
3.
In the
March 2005 Journal we reported on further sampling from Santa Ana and from
another project that looked even more interesting—Corani. We repeated our Spec
Buy position with the comment that “this is the best looking pair of targets BCM
has had for some time and this management group will have no trouble getting the
market’s attention if the drill results live up to expectations”.
4.
The focus on
Corani increases in the May 2005 Dispatch. We noted again that “the
potential of the target and the strong market backing of BCM means it can move
up quickly if drilling proves the zone has some depth.”
5.
In the June
2005 Journal we include a major update on BCM which is now drilling
Corani. We accompany our Spec Buy rating with the statement that though many
were waiting for drill results “in this sort of oxidized environment silver as
often as not has actually been leached at surface and can be higher in drill
holes….it looks like Corani will be the next silver project to post big
numbers...its definitely a bet worth placing”.
6.
We issue
Special Delivery #240 after BCM releases the sort of results we hoped for
and rockets upwards by 70% in one day. We maintained the Strong Speculative Buy
rating commenting that “now that drilling has confirmed surface results we
expect BCM and Corani to be another big win”.
7.
The Spec Buy
was renewed in Special Delivery #251 when new drilling proved the Corani
zone extended under “post mineral” cover, opening up new areas for deposit
expansion.
8.
BCM received weaker than expected metallurgical results and though we still
liked the project we told Special Delivery #257 readers to hold or take
profits and await developments.
9. Soon
afterwards, in the January 2006 HRA Dispatch we signalled that the profit
taking was over and the upward move should resume with climbing silver prices
and more drill results and moved it back up to accumulate..
10. In
Special Delivery #274 we commented on the next up leg in BCM’s price
gathering steam…”The surprise was the extent of price move on the stock on low
volumes. Clearly there are few motivated sellers - Accumulate”
11.
BCM continues
to be a power house stock, magnifying the gains for HRA readers. We think it’s
a great company but even so we said, in the November 2006 Journal “We
should take the advice we keep drumming into readers and make sure we are
playing with “house money”. BCM is up over 1500% and its time to take some large
gains. Its been spiking upward in price - use the next spike to lock in a
large profit by selling part of the position while holding the balance at a sub
zero cost for as a silver hedge and take over target.” Shortly afterwards, BCM
spiked up to $11.50, its all-time high to date and fully 1500% above the HRA
entry price.
Shouldn't you be getting these types of gains?

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