From the HRA Journal Issue 236,
July 16, 2015

Right now it looks like Greece will be resolved though I think it’s destined for a fourth bailout which won’t be completed.  Hope I’m wrong about that but the debt mountain is getting to be un-scalable and the damage to its banking system worsens hourly.

Chinese markets look like they will get a reprieve either though volatility is so high in that market its dangerous to read much into one and two day moves.  

Remain Calm and Move Quietly Towards the Exit:

From the HRA Journal Issue 238-239,
September 15, 2015

I did a lot of agonizing about this month’s main editorial and, truth to tell, I’m still partially on the fence about the market’s major direction.  I think the odds of a drop of bear market (20% plus) proportions is very high right now, I’m just not sure how fast it will happen.


A Cold Wind from the East:

From the HRA Journal Issue 237,
August 17, 2015

Well, that wasn’t fun.  Gold plunged through $1140 and toyed with $1080 for three weeks before making a small comeback.  You can make a case the drop and the reaction to it being the “capitulation event” we’ve been waiting for but I’m not totally sold on that.   I still want to see that first Fed rate hike next month which  I think is more likely to mark a bottom though the longer gold holds above $1100 the stronger the case for the last plunge being “it”.



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But Aren't Commodities Dead?

No. Metals are basic necessities of modern life and the per capita use of metals rises with income levels. In the past decade several of the world's most populous countries underwent accelerated growth. While countries like China, India and Brazil are currently being impacted by recessionary forces, the changes that spurred their stronger growth are not cyclical. These secular changes occur as per capita income reaches levels that require increased infrastructure spending by government and allow for discretionary spending on things like housing. All advanced economies have gone through these high growth secular periods in the past. The difference is that never in history have so many people in the world been entering the "lower middle class" at the same time. The impact on resource use from this massive change is just beginning to be felt. Remember too that there are several other high population countries like Malaysia, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan that are just entering this growth phase now. Collectively, these countries have a population roughly equal to China.

Historically, these sorts of Quality of Life cycles last a full generation or more. We are a bit over 10 years into this one. There will be cyclical slowdowns within the secular trend and individual metals will underperform or outperform depending on their particular supply/demand balance. The mining sector, which we have decades of experience in, will have to struggle just to keep up many times during this trend. Economies turn much faster than metals production. In short, there are more bull runs ahead for various metals and they will start much sooner than most people think. Metals producers and explorers will go from pariahs to market darlings and the change will happen fast when it comes. It has many times before. Buying low and selling high means seeking out the right companies before the market does. HRA can help you do just that.

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Eric Coffin Video Presentation "More of What's Working" from the Metals Investor Forum                         May 30, 2015

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