A Fork in the Road?:

From the HRA Journal Issue 240,
October 4, 2015

Oy, that Coffin!  More indecision?  ‘Fraid so.  I still see a bear market confirmed before year end as the likely scenario. But, as of a couple of days ago there is a new storyline in town.  This new one involves the Fed throwing up its hands and giving up on the idea of raising interest rates.  That’s not what Fed governors are saying but it’s what an increasing number of traders believe.



Janet's Kool-Aid Stand:

From the HRA Journal Issue 242,
November 10, 2015

It’s all good.  Just ask Janet Yellen or any hawkish Federal Reserve board member.  Indeed, there have been some better readings on the US economy lately but things are far from outstanding. 

Plenty of equity traders suddenly expect new highs on the major markets any day now.  The bond market is pricing in 70%+ probability of a December rate hike. 



Bad News Is Good News. For Now.:

From the HRA Journal Issue 241,
October 21, 2015

Since the last issue the “optimistic scenario” has been the clear winner.  Traders continue to expect the Fed to hold off.  That has been enough to keep NY trending higher though the trajectory is flattening out.  Economic readings haven’t improved.  It will take plenty of upside surprises though earning season to keep the trend alive.



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But Aren't Commodities Dead?

No. Metals are basic necessities of modern life and the per capita use of metals rises with income levels. In the past decade several of the world's most populous countries underwent accelerated growth. While countries like China, India and Brazil are currently being impacted by recessionary forces, the changes that spurred their stronger growth are not cyclical. These secular changes occur as per capita income reaches levels that require increased infrastructure spending by government and allow for discretionary spending on things like housing. All advanced economies have gone through these high growth secular periods in the past. The difference is that never in history have so many people in the world been entering the "lower middle class" at the same time. The impact on resource use from this massive change is just beginning to be felt. Remember too that there are several other high population countries like Malaysia, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan that are just entering this growth phase now. Collectively, these countries have a population roughly equal to China.

Historically, these sorts of Quality of Life cycles last a full generation or more. We are a bit over 10 years into this one. There will be cyclical slowdowns within the secular trend and individual metals will underperform or outperform depending on their particular supply/demand balance. The mining sector, which we have decades of experience in, will have to struggle just to keep up many times during this trend. Economies turn much faster than metals production. In short, there are more bull runs ahead for various metals and they will start much sooner than most people think. Metals producers and explorers will go from pariahs to market darlings and the change will happen fast when it comes. It has many times before. Buying low and selling high means seeking out the right companies before the market does. HRA can help you do just that.

Latest HRA Media

Eric Coffin Video Presentation "Is a Bad Market Good for Gold Stocks?" from the Vancouver Subscriber Investment Summit,

                              October 8th, 2015                        

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HRA is great at getting the "real" story out on resource companies by doing their due diligence and keeping on top of maps, news releases and corporate development. I highly recommend HRA...to any investor whether it be an institutional client or private investor.