Free Editorial

NOT A GOOD LOOK

From the HRA Journal: Issue 296

As I expected, Wall St went lower, though only slightly lower so far. I won't be surprised to see more lower lows before the current correction ends, though some near term catalysts discussed in the editorial will be the determining factor.

The gold price hasn't done anything much this month but is, arguably better set up now for gains than it's been for at least a few months. Too soon to tell if those gains will arrive but the same catalysts mentioned above apply to bullion.

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Course Correction

From the HRA Journal: Issue 295

Wall St put in a correction as I expected it would. We've seen a recent bounce which has the street calmed down, though I'm not convinced yet we've seen the end of the downside.

Because of the political uncertainties, I decided to move the fuller comments on base metals back by one more issue. I'm not sure the outcome of the US midterms will change anything, but we may see a more conciliatory tome on trade after November 7th. Trade tensions have weighed so heavily on base metals that I want to see the politics play out a bit more.

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Oops, He Did It Again

From the HRA Journal: Issue 293

So much for tons of results. As I explain in the Update introduction we've got lab slowdowns again. That will clear in coming weeks however.

I don't expect the slow down will affect results from the company that is the Extended Review this issue, thanks to its location. Good drill results are one thing that has gotten attention lately. This company has the potential to deliver impressive results on NEW targets. Make a point of reading that review.

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Autumn Colours

From the HRA Journal: Issue 292

Events conspired to give us a small bounce in the gold price. Nothing amazing but at least a move in the right direction. The positive news was, for once, magnified in the junior sector. We just had the best couple of weeks on the Venture exchange we’ve had for a long time, including ten straight up days.

We can thank discovery stories for that, more than metals prices. I think there is reason to hope for better metals prices, especially in base metals if we ever see a reduction in trade tensions between China and the US. It doesn’t sound like the recent trade meetings went very well so we’re not there yet. China does seem to be trying to put a floor under its currency, which should help metal prices until some sort of trade resolution can be reached.

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NEGATIVITY

From the HRA Journal: Issue 291

We just had a civic holiday in Canada and resource traders surely felt like they needed one. If only so they could go another day without looking at their trading screens.

The main editorial is all about sentiment which is strongly and firmly negative for precious metals. Negative enough that it may generate a bounce soon though we'd be better off if a reversal came from some "event" that really cleared out short positions. Any number of things could create the spark that leads to a reversal though I don't see an obvious and immanent candidate at the moment. I do think things are now so negative that we can expect to see things start going our way "soon" on the gold side.

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The Little Tweet That Could?

From the HRA Journal: Issue 290

Things continued to get worse for the gold market through the dog days of July. We're all playing "how low can it go" now. The only good news in the gold market is that the bearish positioning is now almost as extreme as the bullish positioning in the US Dollar market. We're overdue for some mean revision.

We finally got a feasibility study and a resource estimate we've been waiting for and both were positive. The other resource estimate we've been waiting for is rumoured to be very close but, well, engineers.

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Gut Check

From the HRA Journal: Issue 289

Ugly, ugly, ugly. Yet more proof that trying to predict the gold market short term is a mug's game. The metals markets didn't do us any favours as June wore on but at least we got good news from several HRA list companies to cushion the blow.

I'm expecting more good news on several fronts soon, including most of the companies working on resource estimates and feasibility studies that were delayed. Note to self—Don't offer guesses on third-party study timing either.

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THE WAITING GAME

From the HRA Journal: Issue 288

Buckle up. We could have a smooth ride over the next few trading sessions, but that seems like an over-optimistic scenario. There are several market moving events that will determine the short and medium term trajectory of the precious metals markets and set the tone for the summer.

Based on recent history, we should be just ahead of the start of a gold rally but I'm not getting cocky until I see the actual Fed announcement since it's the rate hike trajectory after the expected increase next week that really matters.

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Are We There Yet?

From the HRA Journal: Issue 286

It increasingly feels like we may soon get the gold price move we’ve been waiting for. I thought we wouldn’t see it until autumn, but I now think we could get a spring rally. That will help all the gold explorers and developers on the HRA list. Several of the latter are already outperforming their peer groups.

Improving sentiment should also help explorers, though I continue to think the best gains in that part of the space will be reserved for companies looking for something new. I’ve been avoiding adding too many companies that focus on recycling projects I’ve seen once or twice or more times before.

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The Old Normal

From the HRA Journal: Issue 285

Gold got a nice lift off after a widely expected rate hike, but it’s been flat to down as markets have been trading very strangely against each other.  We’ve seen continued high levels of volatility, but those haven’t translated to real risk aversion on the part of equity traders.

Add the politics, namely a trade skirmish between the US and China that could still potentially become a trade war, and we have a market that probably should be more concerned than it seems to be.  Traders are not taking the US president seriously, or at least are assuming cooler heads in the White House will prevail.  I’m not sure that’s realistic anymore as the list of cooler heads at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave seems to be getting shorter and shorter. Read More

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