Free Editorial

A Self-Dealing Market

From the HRA Journal: Issue 303

The editorial in this issue deals with a subject that I think is too ignored. It's one of THE main reasons for the current bull market in NY but rarely gets talked about, and almost never gets talked about for what it truly is, which is a form of insider trading. I don't want to sound like I condone insider trading. But I do get sick of Wall St being holier than thou when it comes to junior markets. Wall St has no reason to feel virtuous. To paraphrase the old saying in tech- when it comes to Wall St, insider trading isn't a bug, it's a feature.

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Cursed?

From the HRA Journal: Issue 302

The FOMC cranked up the dovishness yesterday, after I’d finished the editorial naturally. It’s really just more of the same and doesn’t change the message, just reinforces it. Added dovishness has given gold a bounce, but it’s still fighting against the extreme “risk on” stance on Wall St. Traders just don’t care that the Fed is clearly worried about a substantial economic slowdown.

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Bipolar Base Metals

From the HRA Journal: Issue 301

Wall St continues to bask in the love of the FOMC, with lots of soothing comments to warm the cockles of trader's hearts and bring on the bids.

I've still got some real concerns about the US economy as the year wears on, but maybe all this stock market joy turns things around. Some rapidly deteriorating economic readings will need continued attention though.

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PRE-PRE-PDAC

Gold's moving again, just in time for the run-up to the annual PDAC conference in Toronto, and the Metals Investment Forum that precedes it. Copper is trading very well too. While I've pointed out many times that this isn't as unusual as some think, I'm sure generalists at least will make much of the fact that bullion is moving higher in tandem with the $USD.

Gold is moving higher on straight up demand, not as the "anti-dollar". To my mind, this increases the odds of this move having some "legs". That's good, since I still think the important price level lies on the other side of the $1350 mark. Reaching the $1360's is what would really make the generalists pay attention.

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Wall Street's B*tch?

From the HRA Journal: Issue 299-300

After weeks of slow news flow, we got the deluge around MIF and Roundup, with several companies on the HRA list putting out major news. Dealing with that held up the issue a bit. It's not a double issue because it's a bit late. It's a double because all the long updates and addition of a new gold explorer to the HRA Journal list means its long. 40 pages long to be exact.

The Fed came to the rescue of Wall St much more quickly and forcefully than I expected. And it seems every member of the FOMC is sticking to the dovish script now. That has reversed the dive on the SPX, and it's not hurting the gold price either. Base metals are holding up. They will do better if the China-US trade dispute ever gets settled. A lower USD would help too, but economic readings out of Europe and Asia have been weaker than the US lately so the greenback is holding up.

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It's On.

Much more news flow this week, some of it clearly timed for presentation and/or Core Shack presence at this years Cordilleran Roundup. The Roundup is the regional version of the PDAC, a technical rather than an investment show. It does attract some funds and analysts though and companies time news for it, as much for meetings held outside the conference as the conference itself.

Before commenting on news, I should comment on the outcome of yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting. I'll have a bit more colour and background in the next Journal but, for now, suffice it to say that the FOMC has helped strengthen the bullish move in gold that was already well underway.

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…Chicken, Egg, Chicken…

From the HRA Journal: Issue 298

This issue contains the first part of my start of the year editorial, focused on the equity markets, with a gold kicker at the end. Wall St, barely, avoided falling into a bear market late last month. I don't think we'll get through 2019 without a drop into Bear Market territory getting completed. I'm still not sure whether that will happen early or late in the year, though bear markets that start in Q1 are admittedly pretty rare.

The delay getting lab results and engineering studies continue. There is only a short list of updates this issue because so few companies reported anything. With a couple of important conferences dead ahead, I'm still hopeful the reporting situation improves through the next couple of weeks.

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LUMP OF COAL

From the HRA Journal: Issue 297

The major markets got a lot more uncomfortable since the last issue, and that's saying something. It's not a bear market on Wall Street but it keeps heading that way.

I'm less concerned about continued drawdowns on Wall St than I am about a crash. Crashes take everything down with them while more measured declines–even big ones–allow for some rotation to sectors that look "cheap". The gold sector still has cheap in spades. We may be setting up for another early 2016 scenario where gold stocks–explorers included–hugely outperform other sectors of the market.

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NOT A GOOD LOOK

From the HRA Journal: Issue 296

As I expected, Wall St went lower, though only slightly lower so far. I won't be surprised to see more lower lows before the current correction ends, though some near term catalysts discussed in the editorial will be the determining factor.

The gold price hasn't done anything much this month but is, arguably better set up now for gains than it's been for at least a few months. Too soon to tell if those gains will arrive but the same catalysts mentioned above apply to bullion.

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Course Correction

From the HRA Journal: Issue 295

Wall St put in a correction as I expected it would. We've seen a recent bounce which has the street calmed down, though I'm not convinced yet we've seen the end of the downside.

Because of the political uncertainties, I decided to move the fuller comments on base metals back by one more issue. I'm not sure the outcome of the US midterms will change anything, but we may see a more conciliatory tome on trade after November 7th. Trade tensions have weighed so heavily on base metals that I want to see the politics play out a bit more.

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