Free Editorial

The Curse

From the HRA Journal: Issue 265

Traders are starting to bail in advance of PDAC.  That’s usually a wise move, though the editorial lays out some counter arguments. Even if your preference is to do some selling I think you need to be selective and look at which stocks are more likely to weather a pullback. 

It may seem counter-intuitive but I think some of the earlier stage stocks could be the stronger ones through the next couple of months. When traders decide to get behind a story, they can more than counter act the seasonal sellers.  We’re starting to see that behaviour in a couple of the early stage companies HRA tracks, with the first company in the update section being a prime example. Read More

And So It Begins

From the HRA Journal: Issue 264

Welcome to the Trump Years, and the Year of the Rooster.  The markets were entertained, until today. Traders seemed to assume Trump would enact all the things Wall St liked and none of the things it doesn’t.  However, the immigration ban looks in its final form it should disabuse Wall St of the notion that it’s going to get to call all the shots.

Trump has filled his cabinet with a number of the usual suspects from the usual power centres but he’s also shown he hasn’t given up on his tendency to react viscerally to events.  That leaves room for plenty of unpleasant surprises.   I think the honeymoon—in terms of market volatility at least—is now over.  It remains to be seen if we get a bigger drawdown in coming weeks on top of that. Read More

A Pivotal Year?

From the HRA Journal: Issue 263

Gold took another drubbing after the December Fed meeting but its managed to fight its way back above the level it was trading at right before the meeting.

It’s still well below the levels it traded at before the US election.  The Trump honeymoon isn’t over yet though NY markets are finding it tougher to make headway.  The crowd at CNBC has been doing the “Dow 20K” cheer for a month now.  The market still hasn’t breached that newsworthy but otherwise meaningless level but it’s very, very close.  Read More

The Inflation President?

From the December 13, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 262

Vive Le Trump.  Vive Le DJIA!

It’s all good.  Unless you own gold stocks.  We’ve endured a couple more weeks of pain.  All bottoms have been false bottoms so far.  We may have to survive a couple more but the FOMC meeting tomorrow should set the tone.  I’m betting on higher gold prices going through year end.  I am hedging my bets a bit though.  Note that most of the “”buys” and “strong buys” in the update section are predominantly exploration stories. Those can buck the trend if they deliver and move even more if gold puts the wind at their back. Read More

Leading and Lagging

From the November 24, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 261

Things DIDN’T go as expected, with Trump winning the US election and markets embracing the change rather than fearing it.  That has led to a serious breakdown in the gold price.  The next big items are the November payroll report and December Fed meeting.  We’ll have to see how markets react to those events but the odds of a lower for longer gold price shouldn’t be underestimated.

Read More

Elephant in the Room

From the November 7, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 260

I’ve always considered politics a little bit crazy.  “Little bit” doesn’t begin to describe the gong show that passes for an election in the US.  The good news is that it will soon be over.  Good riddance.

The gold sector continues to tread water.   Things look a little better on the base metal side though there are reasons to exercise a bit of caution with some of them as I detail in the editorial. Read More

First, the Bad News

From the October 18, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 259

Gold had another big leg down in October and that has the naysayers out in force.  I’m not that surprised or dismayed. Scepticism is a feature of young bull markets.  We should use it to our advantage rather than agonizing about it.

I think we’re about to start trending higher immanently, for both the gold price and the resource sector.  We may actually see a pattern similar to last year if the Fed makes good on its promise to raise rates in December. Read More

Bait and Switch

From the September 28th, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 258

We didn’t have nearly the excitement I was hoping for during September. A few companies got big reactions to their drill results but they were negative more often than positive.  Reporting also wasn't as quick as I’d hoped in many cases. The silver lining there is that we are still holding a number of lottery tickets and waiting to see if our numbers will come up.

The Fed ducked yet again, to the surprise of very few.  That hasn’t helped gold prices as much as I would have expected.  Traders in the larger markets seem to have gone “risk-on“ again very quickly That didn’t work too well the last couple of times. We’ll see if the third time is the charm. Read More

Hunting Season

From the September 6, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 257

Ok, Happy now?

All you traders that were wringing your hands and calling tops for the sector since PDAC finally got a correction to call your own.  It wasn’t much of one.  I don’t think I’d get it framed or bronzed, but it’s yours.  You can all relax now in the knowledge that you won’t be the one buying the top. That top, at least.

With a correction (of sorts) and a clear interim bottom in the gold price the deck is cleared for the mountain of news releases headed our way.  Expect high volumes and high volatility.  We know traders want to own these companies as they prepare to report but we don’t know yet what sort of results will satisfy shareholders. That will be a company by company decision and management's ability to convey and explain their results will be a big factor. Read More

Legends of the Fall

From the August 16, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 256

New highs for New York and even more new highs across the junior resource space.  We haven't gotten to September yet and we already seem to be staring the Autumn lift off.  It’s nice to be in the sector the rest of the market is jealous of for a change.

The Venture is currently one of the world’s best performing indexes, perhaps THE best performing.  That move continues to be dominated by gold explorers that have captured the attention of traders.  It’s been five years, at least, since I have seen the levels of anticipatory buying we’re getting for some stocks.  That is a great place to be if you’re already in.  That is why HRA keeps looking for situations where the crowd hasn’t arrived yet.

Read More

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