From the December 13, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 262
Vive Le Trump. Vive Le DJIA!
It’s all good. Unless you own gold stocks. We’ve endured a couple more weeks of pain. All bottoms have been false bottoms so far. We may have to survive a couple more but the FOMC meeting tomorrow should set the tone. I’m betting on higher gold prices going through year end. I am hedging my bets a bit though. Note that most of the “”buys” and “strong buys” in the update section are predominantly exploration stories. Those can buck the trend if they deliver and move even more if gold puts the wind at their back. Read More
From the November 24, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 261
Things DIDN’T go as expected, with Trump winning the US election and markets embracing the change rather than fearing it. That has led to a serious breakdown in the gold price. The next big items are the November payroll report and December Fed meeting. We’ll have to see how markets react to those events but the odds of a lower for longer gold price shouldn’t be underestimated.
From the November 7, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 260
I’ve always considered politics a little bit crazy. “Little bit” doesn’t begin to describe the gong show that passes for an election in the US. The good news is that it will soon be over. Good riddance.
The gold sector continues to tread water. Things look a little better on the base metal side though there are reasons to exercise a bit of caution with some of them as I detail in the editorial. Read More
From the October 18, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 259
Gold had another big leg down in October and that has the naysayers out in force. I’m not that surprised or dismayed. Scepticism is a feature of young bull markets. We should use it to our advantage rather than agonizing about it.
I think we’re about to start trending higher immanently, for both the gold price and the resource sector. We may actually see a pattern similar to last year if the Fed makes good on its promise to raise rates in December. Read More
From the September 28th, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 258
We didn’t have nearly the excitement I was hoping for during September. A few companies got big reactions to their drill results but they were negative more often than positive. Reporting also wasn't as quick as I’d hoped in many cases. The silver lining there is that we are still holding a number of lottery tickets and waiting to see if our numbers will come up.
The Fed ducked yet again, to the surprise of very few. That hasn’t helped gold prices as much as I would have expected. Traders in the larger markets seem to have gone “risk-on“ again very quickly That didn’t work too well the last couple of times. We’ll see if the third time is the charm. Read More
From the September 6, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 257
Ok, Happy now?
All you traders that were wringing your hands and calling tops for the sector since PDAC finally got a correction to call your own. It wasn’t much of one. I don’t think I’d get it framed or bronzed, but it’s yours. You can all relax now in the knowledge that you won’t be the one buying the top. That top, at least.
With a correction (of sorts) and a clear interim bottom in the gold price the deck is cleared for the mountain of news releases headed our way. Expect high volumes and high volatility. We know traders want to own these companies as they prepare to report but we don’t know yet what sort of results will satisfy shareholders. That will be a company by company decision and management's ability to convey and explain their results will be a big factor. Read More
From the August 16, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 256
New highs for New York and even more new highs across the junior resource space. We haven't gotten to September yet and we already seem to be staring the Autumn lift off. It’s nice to be in the sector the rest of the market is jealous of for a change.
The Venture is currently one of the world’s best performing indexes, perhaps THE best performing. That move continues to be dominated by gold explorers that have captured the attention of traders. It’s been five years, at least, since I have seen the levels of anticipatory buying we’re getting for some stocks. That is a great place to be if you’re already in. That is why HRA keeps looking for situations where the crowd hasn’t arrived yet.
From the July 26, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 255
Major equity markets continue to perform well, though the rally is looking a little tired. We’ll know in hours whether the Fed plays it dovish or hawkish and that in turn will determine if we see near term new highs. We’re into Q2 earnings season. There is plenty of the usual cheerleading about “earnings beats”. Nice, except that the earnings are beating expectations that have been lowered yet again.
Its early days but already looks like we may get another quarter of declining overall earnings. That would make six in a row. If you’re wondering when the last time was that we saw this long a string of earnings declines coupled with new highs for the market the answer is “never”.
From the July 12, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 254
Wall St’s doing the happy dance again. You’d think the SPX is well through a massive rally instead of just a couple of percent higher than it was 15 months ago. Never let facts get in the way of a good story.
Traders are pleased about June’s strong payroll numbers and even more pleased that there isn’t more obvious Brexit fallout. I don’t think the Brexit story is over yet. It may not harm markets further but that will depend on how messy the divorce between Britain and the EU ultimately turns out to be. Read More
From the June 23, 2016 HRA Journal: Issue 253
Well, ok then. Unexpected.
You already know what the big story is this issue. I ripped out the old editorial and rewrote it in the wake of the Brexit vote. I hate sounding like I’m making too big a deal out of an issue that is only a few hours old but this is one of those cases where any number of long term effects are obvious.
Risk Off is back. With a vengeance. Unlike some recent episodes gold is very much benefiting from the change in tone. The foundation for that was laid when generalist money started entering the space. One of the most likely outcomes of Brexit is lower for longer interest rates and vast liquidity injections by central banks. All of that, for a change, is gold positive. I don’t think this is a market where gold will be punished or be one of the first assets jettisoned when things get scary. Read More
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HRA is great at getting the "real" story out on resource companies by doing their due diligence and keeping on top of maps, news releases and corporate development. I highly recommend HRA...to any investor whether it be an institutional client or private investor.